a tale of the sea that died to be cotton

[boby]

sounds like a good title for a tale doesnt it?
just imagine - the sea that became cotton...
sounds like a beautiful tale


but in fact its not a tale
its real
and its ugly
i was quite shocked to learn about it

Aral Sea

this is what we remember aral sea to be from the maps:


and this is what aral see is today:


it has shrunk 90% in 40 years


and now aral see looks like that:




you can even see it in google maps
(altho the satellite images in the area are more than 10 years old)

the question that comes to mind straight away is
why?

In 1918, the Soviet government decided that the two rivers that fed the Aral Sea, the Amu Darya in the south and the Syr Darya in the northeast, would be diverted to irrigate the desert, in order to attempt to grow rice, melons, cereals, and cotton. This was part of the Soviet plan for cotton, or "white gold", to become a major export. This did eventually end up becoming the case, and today Uzbekistan is one of the world's largest exporters of cotton.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aral_Sea

3rd in the world to be precise

quite an ambitious and ultimately successful business project
turn the desert into a farm, employ all the local wild tribes and turn their dead lands into a prosperous country

except that in 1918 nobody thought everything in nature is in balance
resources are not unlimited - break the balance and you get a disaster

and before you blame it on communism - keep in mind this:
the americans did the same mistake with oil - the difference is - oil plagued the whole planet
while this project sucked dry a lake to give food to and produce
a combined population of 50 million of the areas involved - all in the desert

the fourth largest lake in the world died to turn uzbekistan into the third largest exporter of cotton

but its not like noone could see where things were going

Some Soviet experts apparently considered the Aral to be "nature's error", and a Soviet engineer said in 1968 that "it is obvious to everyone that the evaporation of the Aral Sea is inevitable."[5] On the other hand, starting in the 1960s, a large scale project was proposed to redirect part of the flow of the rivers of the Ob basin to Central Asia over a gigantic canal system. Refilling of the Aral Sea was considered as one of the project's main goals. However, due to its staggering costs and the negative public opinion in Russia proper, the federal authorities abandoned the project by 1986.

uzbekistan declared independence from the soviet union before 18 years
and did close to nothing while the sea was about 60% of its original size
now its a real challenge to restore it

but there is hope for aral sea

In January 1994, the countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan signed a deal to pledge 1% of their budgets to helping the sea recover.

As of 2006, some recovery of sea level has been recorded, sooner than expected. Economically significant stocks of fish have returned, and observers who had written off the North Aral Sea as an environmental disaster were surprised by unexpected reports that in 2006 its returning waters were already partly reviving the fishing industry and producing catches for export as far as Ukraine

ironically - their neighbours - kazakhstan - who do not profit all that much from cotton exports
do the most to restore the lake - sadly tho - by dividing the lake in two

Work is being done to restore in part the North Aral Sea. Irrigation works on the Syr Darya have been repaired and improved to increase its water flow, and in October 2003, the Kazakh government announced a plan to build Dike Kokaral, a concrete dam separating the two halves of the Aral Sea. Work on this dam was completed in August 2005; since then the water level of the North Aral has risen, and its salinity has decreased.

The South Aral Sea, which lies in poorer Uzbekistan, was largely abandoned to its fate.
Uzbekistan shows no interest in abandoning the Amu Darya river as an abundant source of cotton irrigation, and instead is moving toward oil exploration in the drying South Aral seabed.
As of summer 2003[update], the South Aral Sea was vanishing faster than predicted. Based on the recent data, the eastern part of the South Aral Sea is expected to be gone within 15 years; the western part could last for another 50-125 years.

sometimes its more than obvious climate change can be 100% human made
the sad thing is few care about that when profit comes to their mind
because obviously there are solutions for relatively quick restoration of aral sea
but they surely will bring no quick buck into noones pocket

Possible solutions
Many different solutions to the different problems have been suggested over the years, ranging in feasibility and cost, including the following:

• Improving the quality of irrigation canals;
• Installing desalination plants;
• Charging farmers to use the water from the rivers;
• Using alternative cotton species that require less water;[17]
• Using fewer chemicals on the cotton;
• Moving farming away from cotton;
• Installing dams to fill the Aral Sea;
• Redirecting water from the Volga, Ob and Irtysh rivers. This would restore the Aral Sea to its former size in 20–30 years at a cost of US$30–50 billion;[18]
• Pump and dilute sea water into the Aral Sea from the Caspian Sea via pipeline.

africa today is looked upon as the future world feeding farm
turning deserts into farms is easy
especially if profit is in mind
keeping the balance tho is hard
lets see how the tale will unfold this time

[sasho]

I knew the story. it's a classic tale of how the russians think about nature -
something to be altered at the will of the planner.
and of course, in a one-party rule,
you don't have a civil society of scientists, farmers, engineeres etc.
to protest and change the direction of things.

in all fairness, of course, countries everywhere alter the natural landscape -
deforestation, building artificial dams, etc, etc.

and I don't blame the communists, rather the russians,
because they have had another crazy project for almost 200 years now
that the bolsheviks almost made happen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_river_reversal

The Northern river reversal or Siberian river reversal was a grandiose project to divert the flow of the Northern rivers in the Soviet Union, which "uselessly" drain into the Arctic Ocean, southwards towards the populated agricultural areas of Central Asia, which lack water [...] Despite the ousting of Khrushchev in 1964, talks about the projects of turning the major rivers Pechora, Kama, Tobol, Ishim, Irtysh, and Ob resumed in the late 1960s.[6] Some 120 institutes and agencies participated in the impact study coordinated by the Academy of Sciences; a dozen conferences were held on the matter. The promoters of the project claimed that extra food production due to the availability of Siberian water for irrigation in Central Asia could provide food for some 200,000,000 people [...] In the 1970s construction started to divert the Pechora and Kama Rivers toward the Volga and the Caspian Sea in the south in western Russia. A 70-mile stretch was levelled with the help of nuclear explosives, and this novel land-clearance method drew sharp criticisms on environmental pollution grounds for fear of pollution. In 1971, at a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, the Soviets disclosed information about earthworks on the route of the Pechora-Kama Canal using detonations of three 15-kiloton nuclear devices spaced 500 feet apart, claiming negligible radioactive fallout.[1] However, no further construction work, nuclear or otherwise, was conducted on that canal. It was estimated that 250 more nuclear detonations was required to complete the levelling for the channel if the procedure had been continued. The pollution on surface was found to be manageable.[...] In the 1980s at least 12 of the Arctic Ocean-bound rivers were proposed to be redirected to the south. At that time it was estimated that an additional freeze-up would occur to cut the brief northern growing season by two weeks if 37.8 billion extra cubic meters of water were returned annually to the European side of Russia and 60 billion cubic meters in Siberia. The adverse effect of climatic cooling was feared very much and contributed much to the opposition at that time and the scheme was not taken up. Severe problems was feared from the thick ice expected to remain well past winter in the proposed reservoirs. By retarding the spring thaw, it was feared, the prolonged freeze-up could cut the already brief northern growing season by two weeks. The prolonged winter weather was also feared to cause increase in spring winds and reduce vital rains. More disturbing, some scientists cautioned that if the Arctic Ocean was not replenished by fresh water, it would get saltier and its freezing point would drop, the icecap would begin to melt, possibly starting a global warming trend.

I like the word "uselessly"

brings me back to my discussion with boby on planning vs. natural order

[boby]

well your source easily disproves your accusations of

how the russians think about nature -
something to be altered at the will of the planner.
and of course, in a one-party rule,
you don't have a civil society of scientists, farmers, engineeres etc.
to protest and change the direction of things.

The project was heavily criticized by many academics, writers, and journalists, in particular for its environmental costs, and eventually abandoned in mid-1980s. The final nail in its coffin was the Resolution of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the CPSU "On the Cessation of the Work on the Partial Flow Transfer of Northern and Siberian Rivers", passed in 1986.

obviously planning is a much better solution than "natural order"

[sasho]

aha. you mean planning in the years of perestroika when the regime was dismantling itself?
that's the only time planning works - when it's being abandoned altogether

[boby]

Perestroika is the Russian term (now used in English) for the political and economic reforms introduced in June 1987.

[sasho]

never trust wiki - it contradicts itself

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Go ... erestroika

Gorbachev announced his new policy of perestroika and its attendant radical reforms were enunciated at the XXVIIth Party Congress between February and March 1986.

you should trust your memory, by the way, rather than open wiki every time you need info.
after all, we lived through these events

[boby]

youre right - it does contradict itself

27 25 February - 6 March 1986 Glasnost and perestroika not yet announced.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congress_of_the_CPSU

beginning in late 1986, he began sketching a series of proposals for reform which culminated in the more extensive program, designated perestroika, which he presented to a plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party in June 1987.

http://mars.wnec.edu/~grempel/courses/w ... orrev.html

[sasho]

formal or informal term, gorbachov signalled the need for change almost immediately
when he came to power in 1985.

Gorbachev's primary goal as General Secretary was to revive the Soviet economy after the stagnant Brezhnev years.[6] In 1985, he announced that the Soviet economy was stalled and that reorganization was needed. Gorbachev proposed a "vague programme of reform", which was adopted at the April Plenum of the Central Committee

so drop it, boby - the soviets only gave up the plan when they started admitting their collapse.
now Russia is "strong again" - and if you check my first link,
you will see that people like the mayor of Moscow are again enthusiastic about the project

[boby]

so whats so wrong about that project anyway?
you think irrigation is a communist crime?

[sasho]

did you read what the scientist said about the risks to the planet?
I don't mind irrigation -
but changing the course of many of the world's biggest rivers to achieve it
and in the process tipping the world's ecological balance
is pretty phenomenally idiotic

[boby]

naah - they just wanted some irrigation - aint nothing wrong with that
in 1830 hardly anyone could grasp the scale of possible damage - just like the americans with oil

The project to turn Siberian rivers goes back to the 1830s when czarist surveyor Alexander Shrenk proposed it.

[sasho]

sure - which doesn't explained why they were infatuated with it as late as mid 1980s,
and why the mayor of Moscow is infatuated with it even now

Calls for resumption of the project

In early 21st century talks about river reversal were renewed by the leaders of both Uzbekistan[14] and Kazakhstan.[15] These proposals met an enthusiastic response from one of Russia's most influential politicians, Moscow mayor Luzhkov[16].

[Mila-Buria]

This last thing shows just how STUPID some people are and how they cannot learn from past mistakes.
Luzhkov is a bastard;

Boby and sasho thanks for sharing these amazing stories - I've never heard of them.
They bring such an incredible moral... to whoever has eyes.

[boby]

youre welcome mila
but both of you with sasho make the same mistake
its not the idea that is bad
its the execution
the irrigation system that was executed around aral sea
was of very poor quality for today with lots of losses on its tracks
and it has been shown it can function if repaired and keep the sea
surely the same thing is valid for the other project
just like it would have been valid for oil - the same oil
americans are so infatuated with even now - they send their boys to die for it

[sasho]

no, boby, the idea can't be good - the idea is about reversing the flow of rivers
you can use part of the water to build dams and irrigate, of course,
but you can't take all the rivers that feed into the arctic ocean
and reverse them to flow south instead of north -
if you can't understand that, read what the scientists said about it.

but I'm sure you understand that pretty well -
if it was reversing the flow of Mississippi we were talking about,
that would've gone directly into the why we call them stupid thread